Meteorologists say the area from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico will remain a potential tropical development zone into the first half of October.

Over the next week, one to two tropical storms could be born in this zone and possibly steered across part of the southeastern United States that was hit hard by Hurricane Helene.

“A zone of low pressure will form across the western Caribbean, accompanied by clusters of tropical downpours and thunderstorms over the next several days,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said, adding, “This feature will shift into a zone with decent prospects for tropical development with abnormally warm ocean waters and where pockets of limited disruptive breezes (wind shear) are currently low. Due to these factors, our team of expert meteorologists is highlighting a high risk for tropical development.”

Wind shear will remain low initially but will tend to increase over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. As these southwesterly breezes increase, they will tend to cause moisture and any tropical feature that has formed or is trying to form to be guided to the north or east later next week into the following weekend.

The exact strength and direction of the wind shear will tend to determine where downpours and gusty winds will be guided by any budding tropical feature(s).

Should steering breezes remain weak, then a track toward Louisiana could occur. Should strong steering breezes from the southwest occur, then a track toward Florida and perhaps the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas would be more likely.

Perhaps not another Helene, but there is a tropical threat with impacts brewing
There will be significant differences between this new tropical threat and what was Helene.

“Helene was a large tropical disturbance that moved into a highly conducive environment for rapid strengthening. In addition to the very warm water, there was very little wind shear in front of Helene,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.