Mississippi’s rising trend in new coronavirus cases seems to be signaling the “second wave” that many health care experts have feared ahead of the holiday season and based on the numbers released Thursday, the virus is spreading quickly across the Magnolia State.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 1,395 new cases on Thursday, bringing the total cases since the pandemic began in March to 138,791.

Of the total cases, the state believes approximately 116,683 have recovered and while many people who are infected with the virus may only have moderate or even no visible symptoms, others can get gravely ill and die as a result.

The state reported 19 new deaths Thursday. A total of 3,619 Mississippians have died from the virus, the state reported.

Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation have created a data-driven model that projects where Mississippi’s death toll from COVID-19 may wind up at the present trajectory. On Thursday morning, the model indicated the death toll could be 5,566 by March 1 if current mitigation measures remain in place.

Their projection jumps to more than 6,900 deaths if mitigation measures are eased and falls to 4,900 if universal mask mandates were put into effect.

The 7-day, daily average of new cases jumped to 1,161 with Thursday’s update. It was the highest 7-day average since August 3.

The 14-day, daily average of new cases rose to 1,065 on Thursday, the highest level since August 9.

State hospitals are reporting increased COVID-19 cases are putting stress on their capacity.

On Thursday, the state reported that 948 people were hospitalized with either confirmed COVID-19 or suspected COVID. The number of hospitalized patients has been steadily rising in recent weeks.

Cumulative Cases and Deaths by County

Totals of all reported COVID-19 cases for 2020, including those in long-term care (LTC) facilities.

The numbers in this table are provisional. County case numbers and deaths may change as investigation finds new or additional information. The data provided below is the most current available.

County	Total Cases	Total Deaths	Total LTC Facility Cases	Total LTC Facility Deaths
Adams	1296	48	64	14
Alcorn	1398	23	88	10
Amite	476	14	15	2
Attala	1019	30	101	21
Benton	476	17	44	9
Bolivar	2315	83	222	30
Calhoun	696	13	25	4
Carroll	671	14	45	9
Chickasaw	993	32	47	14
Choctaw	289	7	1	0
Claiborne	570	16	43	9
Clarke	859	53	93	27
Clay	827	26	20	3
Coahoma	1429	40	126	11
Copiah	1551	39	72	9
Covington	1122	34	67	15
De Soto	9232	93	102	20
Forrest	3517	85	176	41
Franklin	299	4	4	1
George	1182	23	36	6
Greene	567	22	40	6
Grenada	1327	44	114	21
Hancock	1098	37	59	9
Harrison	6604	104	314	35
Hinds	9261	189	497	81
Holmes	1214	60	102	20
Humphreys	509	18	32	7
Issaquena	108	4	0	0
Itawamba	1410	33	89	17
Jackson	5892	112	114	12
Jasper	785	21	1	0
Jefferson	328	11	13	3
Jefferson Davis	523	16	9	1
Jones	3337	87	188	38
Kemper	392	15	41	9
Lafayette	2968	46	123	28
Lamar	2656	48	43	12
Lauderdale	3164	142	301	76
Lawrence	674	14	26	2
Leake	1286	43	42	7
Lee	4622	91	195	39
Leflore	1965	89	195	47
Lincoln	1746	64	162	36
Lowndes	2179	62	115	33
Madison	4462	99	250	46
Marion	1066	46	92	15
Marshall	2004	41	58	13
Monroe	1827	77	172	52
Montgomery	696	25	53	9
Neshoba	2113	111	141	39
Newton	1006	29	41	10
Noxubee	671	17	21	4
Oktibbeha	2317	58	193	31
Panola	2020	47	59	9
Pearl River	1363	66	99	23
Perry	622	24	20	7
Pike	1564	58	98	27
Pontotoc	1858	26	19	2
Prentiss	1349	25	76	6
Quitman	462	6	0	0
Rankin	5038	94	185	25
Scott	1438	29	29	3
Sharkey	296	16	43	8
Simpson	1383	53	122	19
Smith	670	16	55	8
Stone	663	14	58	9
Sunflower	1836	54	84	15
Tallahatchie	933	27	29	7
Tate	1553	47	68	18
Tippah	1157	30	61	4
Tishomingo	1020	41	96	26
Tunica	588	19	15	2
Union	1525	25	46	11
Walthall	728	27	67	13
Warren	1681	56	125	26
Washington	2981	106 *	181	39
Wayne	1135	22	59	10
Webster	408	14	52	11
Wilkinson	365	22	20	5
Winston	1076	24	46	11
Yalobusha	652	26	80	18
Yazoo	1433	36	137	14
Total	138,791	3,619	7,256	1,389